Revenue collection falls short of target by over Rs 110 billion by Mid-Mangsir

KATHMANDU: Nepal’s revenue mobilisation remains under pressure in the current fiscal year, with government collections falling significantly short of targets despite marginal improvement over last year’s performance, according to the Ministry of Finance’s revenue collection report up to Mangsir 29 of FY 2082/83.

Overall Revenue Performance: Weak Mid-Year Momentum

For the ongoing fiscal year 2082/83, the government has set an ambitious annual revenue target of Rs 1.48 trillion. However, by Mangsir-end, the cumulative collection target stood at Rs 520.44 billion, of which only Rs 409.78 billion has been realised.

This means:

Revenue achievement rate: 78.74%

Absolute shortfall: Over Rs 110 billion against the mid-year target

The data clearly indicates that revenue mobilisation has not kept pace with budgetary assumptions, raising concerns over fiscal discipline, expenditure financing, and development spending sustainability.

Monthly Snapshot: Mangsir Underperforms Target

In Mangsir alone, the Ministry of Finance had projected revenue collection of Rs 95.20 billion. Actual collection during the month reached Rs 80.27 billion, translating into an 84.31% achievement rate.

On Mangsir 29, daily revenue stood at Rs 3.44 billion, reflecting subdued transaction activity toward the latter part of the month.

Despite a relatively better monthly performance compared to cumulative figures, the gap remains wide enough to affect quarterly fiscal planning.

Year-on-Year Comparison: Marginal Improvement, Structural Weakness Persists

When compared to the same period last fiscal year (2081/82), revenue performance shows only a modest improvement, insufficient to suggest a structural turnaround.

FY 2081/82 (up to Mangsir 29):

Annual target: Rs 1.4193 trillion

Mid-Mangsir target: Rs 495.02 billion

Actual collection: Rs 405.77 billion

Mangsir month collection: Rs 76.76 billion

In comparison, the current fiscal year has collected just Rs 4.01 billion more by mid-Mangsir, despite higher targets and stronger nominal assumptions.

Fiscal Signals: Pressure on Budget Execution

The revenue figures underscore multiple macro-fiscal risks:

Rising dependence on domestic borrowing to finance recurrent expenditure

Limited fiscal space for capital expenditure acceleration

Increased risk of budget revisions or expenditure compression in the second half

Weak consumption and import growth, impacting VAT and customs revenue

Economists note that unless revenue mobilisation accelerates sharply in the remaining quarters, the government may struggle to meet deficit and debt management targets, further complicating monetary-fiscal coordination.

Outlook: Second-Half Collection Critical

With less than 80% of the mid-year target achieved, the pressure now shifts to the second half of FY 2082/83, traditionally stronger due to:

Settlement of income taxes

Increased imports ahead of the festive and construction season

Capital expenditure push by line ministries

However, without a visible rebound in economic activity, imports, and private sector confidence, revenue risks remain tilted to the downside.

The Ministry of Finance data signals a clear warning: headline revenue growth alone is insufficient unless backed by real economic expansion, efficient tax administration, and credible fiscal reforms.