Rain and snowfall forecast from Thursday: Eastern hills at high risk; Travel alert for major highways

KATHMANDU: Nepal is once again bracing for another round of rain and snowfall beginning Thursday evening, as a new cyclonic system “Montha” developing in the Bay of Bengal moves toward the country. Meteorologists warn that the eastern region, particularly Ilam, Dhankuta, Sankhuwasabha, Solukhumbu, Tehrathum, Panchthar, Khotang, and Jhapa, will face high risk of heavy rain, landslides, and potential floods, while western areas are likely to experience less impact.

According to meteorologist Ujjwal Upadhyay, the weather system that originated in the Arabian Sea has already caused heavy snowfall in the high mountain districts of Mugu, Dolpa, Humla, Jumla, Manang, Mustang, Myagdi, and Rukum East, and cloud cover has blanketed the Kathmandu Valley. He stated that this phase of rain and snow would subside by Wednesday night, offering brief sunshine and warmer conditions through Thursday morning.

However, with the approach of the Montha cyclone, conditions are expected to deteriorate again by Thursday evening, particularly across Bagmati, Madhesh, and Koshi provinces, extending slightly into the eastern parts of Gandaki Province.

“The Montha system is likely to enter Nepal on Thursday evening (Kartik 13) through Parsa, Bara, Rautahat, and Sarlahi districts, bringing significant rainfall across the southern plains and the central region,” Upadhyay told Onlinekhabar. “The epicenter of this system will lie between the Trishuli and Narayani river basins, particularly east of the Narayani River.”

He projected that the system will enter between Parsa and Sarlahi, causing intense rainfall in its path. The adjoining hill and mountain regions are also expected to receive heavy precipitation and snowfall. The impact will be moderate from the Trishuli River to the Karnali region, gradually weakening toward the far west.

Eastern Districts on Alert; Trekking Suspension Advised

The eastern region is forecast to bear the brunt of the upcoming weather event. From Thursday evening to Friday noon, Ilam and neighboring hill districts are expected to receive up to 200 millimeters of rainfall in some areas, prompting warnings of landslides, floods, and travel disruptions.

Meteorologists have advised authorities and residents to remain on high alert and begin preparations for possible disasters, particularly in Ilam, which was devastated by severe floods and landslides in October, claiming 39 lives. Experts note that the soils remain fragile, increasing the likelihood of new landslides even with moderate rain.

Highways at Risk: BP, Prithvi, and Kathmandu–Hetauda Roads

The forecast has also raised concerns over major highways connecting Kathmandu and other provinces. Meteorologist Upadhyay cautioned that BP Highway, Prithvi Highway, and Kathmandu–Hetauda routes could face blockages due to landslides and flooding between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

“There is a chance of 70 to 80 millimeters of rainfall in and around the Kathmandu Valley, which could affect landslide-prone roads,” he said. “Travel on highways connecting the capital should be avoided during that period.”

He further advised trekkers and expedition groups in regions such as Rolwaling, Sagarmatha, and Makalu–Barun to suspend trekking activities until weather conditions improve.

Despite the widespread precipitation, Kathmandu Valley’s upper hills are not expected to receive snowfall, according to Upadhyay. “This November system is not cold enough to bring snow to Kathmandu’s surrounding hills,” he added.

As the Montha cyclone edges closer, Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is expected to issue formal alerts and warnings to local governments and the general public. Emergency response teams are being urged to stay on standby, especially in high-risk eastern hill districts and along key national highways.