Democracy at a Premium: Migrant workers forced to pay double to vote in Nepal polls

KATHMANDU: As thousands of migrant workers prepare to return home to vote in the upcoming national elections, international airfares to Nepal have surged to unprecedented levels, with tickets that typically cost Rs 25,000 now selling for as high as Rs 50,000 — and in some cases crossing Rs 1 lakh.

The spike has reignited criticism that long-haul and regional international airlines systematically raise fares during elections and major Nepali festivals, capitalizing on emotional and civic compulsions rather than pure market dynamics. Analysts and migrant rights advocates argue that this seasonal pricing pattern resembles “opportunistic revenue extraction” rather than transparent yield management.

Demand Surge — Or Coordinated Price Escalation?

Airlines operating on key labour corridors — Malaysia and Gulf destinations — have cited high occupancy rates exceeding 90 percent as justification for the fare escalation.

Among the airlines currently operating flights to Kathmandu are:

• Nepal Airlines Corporation
• Himalaya Airlines
• Qatar Airways
• Flydubai
• Air Arabia
• Malaysia Airlines
• Malindo Air
• Thai Airways
• Cathay Pacific
• SriLankan Airlines

However, industry insiders acknowledge that airlines employ dynamic pricing algorithms that automatically increase fares as seat inventory shrinks — a system that disproportionately impacts last-minute migrant travelers who must return home for voting or major religious events like Dashain and Tihar.

Ticket Prices Double — Even Triple

According to market data:

• Gulf-to-Kathmandu tickets that normally range between Rs 25,000–30,000 are now priced between Rs 45,000–50,000.
• Flydubai fares from Dubai, typically Rs 25,000–27,000, are currently ranging from Rs 32,000 to Rs 1,15,000.
• Dammam–Kathmandu routes have jumped from Rs 28,000–37,000 to as high as Rs 1,02,000.
• Riyadh fares that previously cost Rs 24,000–31,000 are now around Rs 61,000.
• Abu Dhabi–Kathmandu tickets via Air Arabia have increased from Rs 22,000 to between Rs 32,000 and Rs 65,000.

Even Nepal’s national carrier, Nepal Airlines Corporation, has fully sold out most seats through March, with Dubai fares rising from Rs 22,000 to between Rs 41,000 and Rs 57,000.

Weak Regulatory Oversight?

Critics argue that while airlines cite occupancy and demand-supply imbalance, the Government of Nepal has failed to activate consumer protection or temporary fare stabilization mechanisms during election periods.

Nepal’s Civil Aviation regulatory framework allows airlines to operate under market-based pricing. However, economists note that elections are constitutionally mandated civic events — not optional leisure travel periods — and therefore may justify temporary regulatory intervention.

The absence of fare caps or coordination with foreign carriers during predictable high-demand periods reflects what aviation analysts describe as “policy inertia.”

Migrant Workers Bear the Burden

More than 4 million Nepalis work abroad, primarily in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Malaysia. For many, returning home to vote requires months of savings and careful planning. When fares double within weeks, lower-income workers are either forced to delay travel or borrow money at high interest rates.

Travel agencies confirm that cheaper fare classes were exhausted quickly, leaving only premium inventory available — a pattern repeated during past elections and major festivals.

Airlines Defend Pricing

Airline representatives maintain that high load factors naturally push fares upward. They argue that pricing is automated and market-driven, not manually manipulated.

Yet consumer advocates question whether airlines should be allowed to monetize national democratic exercises. They point out that airlines rarely increase flight frequency significantly during such periods, despite predictable demand cycles, thereby constraining supply.

Structural Aviation Bottlenecks

Nepal’s limited international airport infrastructure, slot restrictions, and bilateral air service agreements also constrain capacity expansion. Although Nepal Airlines Corporation and Himalaya Airlines operate on key labour routes, fleet limitations reduce flexibility during demand surges.

The lack of a strong low-cost long-haul Nepali carrier further limits competitive pricing pressure.

Broader Economic Implications

The airfare surge has ripple effects across Nepal’s tourism, remittance inflows, and domestic consumption cycles. High travel costs reduce disposable income for returning migrant workers, affecting local economic activity during election season.

From an aviation economics perspective, the situation reflects a classic case of inelastic demand: when emotional, religious, or civic obligations compel travel, price sensitivity decreases — allowing suppliers to maximize revenue.

Governance Question Ahead of Polls

With Nepal heading toward elections, the issue of airfare inflation could evolve into a political debate. Opposition figures have previously accused airlines of exploiting Nepali migrant labourers during crises, including COVID-19 repatriation phases.

The government has yet to announce any intervention or monitoring framework.

As ticket prices continue climbing, many migrant workers say the pattern has become predictable: whenever elections or major festivals approach, fares rise sharply — leaving voters to question whether participating in democracy now comes at a premium cost.

For Nepal’s aviation market, the episode exposes deeper regulatory weaknesses — and raises a broader question: should market freedom override civic accessibility during nationally significant events?