India-Pakistan conflict escalates with strikes and retaliation amid ceasefire violations

KATHMANDU: Tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan reached a critical point today as India launched missile strikes under “Operation Sindoor,” targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The strikes, which India claims were a response to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people, mostly tourists, have drawn sharp retaliation from Pakistan, killing civilians on both sides and raising fears of a broader conflict.

The Pahalgam attack, claimed by The Resistance Front—an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba—prompted India to accuse Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism, a charge Pakistan denies. India’s Operation Sindoor, launched on May 6, targeted nine sites, including Muridke, Bahawalpur, and Muzaffarabad, marking the deepest strikes into Pakistan since 1971. India’s Defense Ministry described the strikes as “focused, measured, and non-escalatory,” aimed at terrorist infrastructure linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, with no Pakistani military facilities hit.

However, Pakistani authorities report eight civilian deaths, including a child, and 38 injuries, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling the strikes an “act of war” and vowing a robust response. Pakistan claims its air force shot down two to five Indian aircraft, including Rafales, though India has not confirmed any losses.
Pakistan retaliated with missile strikes on Indian-administered Kashmir, killing three Indian civilians, according to India.

Both nations have engaged in heavy shelling across the Line of Control (LoC), with explosions reported in Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. Pakistan’s state media claimed an Indian brigade headquarters was destroyed, a claim India has not addressed. Residents in Muzaffarabad described scenes of chaos, with power blackouts and civilian casualties, while India reported fighter jet activity over Srinagar.

The conflict, rooted in the decades-long Kashmir dispute, has seen escalating diplomatic and military measures since the Pahalgam attack. India expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended visas, closed borders, and halted the Indus Waters Treaty—a 1960 agreement regulating water sharing—prompting protests in Pakistan, where 80% of agriculture relies on the Indus.

Pakistan retaliated by suspending trade, closing airspace to Indian flights, and suspending the Shimla Agreement. India’s move to withhold water data has sparked fears of flooding or drought in Pakistan, with farmers like Ali Haider Dogar in Sindh warning, “India can starve us.” Pakistan has called the treaty suspension an “act of war,” with analysts warning of long-term consequences for regional stability.

Ceasefire violations along the LoC have intensified since April 24, with Pakistan initiating small-arms fire and artillery attacks across multiple sectors, including Kupwara and Akhnoor, for 12 consecutive nights. India has responded proportionately, with no confirmed Indian military casualties but significant civilian losses on both sides. Pakistan’s military also reported shooting down two Indian drones earlier in the conflict.

International responses have been swift but cautious. The U.S. State Department, through Secretary Marco Rubio, urged both nations to de-escalate, with Rubio engaging in talks with Indian and Pakistani leaders. China expressed support for Pakistan but called for restraint, while Iran offered to mediate. The UN stressed “maximum restraint,” citing the risk of a nuclear confrontation. A 2019 study forecasting a nuclear conflict in 2025 has resurfaced, though experts like Michael Kugelman estimate a 19% chance of over 1,000 military casualties by June 30 if tensions persist.

As both nations continue military posturing—Pakistan tested ballistic missiles on May 3, and India conducted drills—the situation remains volatile. Analysts warn that miscalculations, such as further water disputes or unverified claims like Pakistan’s downed aircraft, could spiral into a larger conflict, threatening South Asia’s stability.