Nepal sets firm deadlines for mega hydro projects, Targets 24,500 MW output and export expansion

KATHMANDU: The Government of Nepal has, for the first time, introduced clear construction deadlines for large-scale hydropower projects under its newly unveiled “Energy Consumption Growth and Export Strategy 2083,” signaling a decisive shift toward time-bound execution, investment acceleration, and export-led energy growth.

The strategy, prepared under the leadership of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Biraj Bhakta Shrestha, sets an ambitious roadmap to complete 15 major hydropower projects by 2092 BS (2035/36), including the long-delayed 1,200 MW Budhigandaki Hydropower Project by 2091 BS (2034/35).

Time-Bound Hydropower Development Framework

The strategy, covering the period from fiscal year 2082/83 to 2092/93, aims to generate 24,500 megawatts of electricity, aligning production growth with domestic consumption expansion and competitive electricity exports to regional markets.

According to the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, project selection and timelines have been structured to ensure early results from smaller schemes while maintaining long-term focus on large reservoir-based projects critical for energy stability.

Fast-Track Projects for Immediate Results

To deliver quick gains, the government has prioritized small and mid-sized hydropower projects with aggressive timelines:

• 40 MW Raghuganga Hydropower Project targeted for completion within FY 2083/84—under an ambitious “100-day completion” goal
• 37 MW Upper Trishuli 3B scheduled for completion by FY 2084/85

These projects are expected to provide immediate additions to the national grid and demonstrate execution efficiency.

Medium-Term Pipeline: 2028–2030 Focus

Between FY 2085 and 2087, the strategy prioritizes under-construction projects to accelerate capacity expansion:

• 140 MW Tanahu Hydropower Project by 2085/86
• 99 MW Tamakoshi V Hydropower Project,
• 42 MW Upper Modi A Hydropower Project,
• 18.2 MW Upper Modi Hydropower Project — all by 2086/87
• 210 MW Chainpur Seti Hydropower Project by 2087

This phase focuses on unlocking projects already in the pipeline to avoid delays and cost overruns.

Mega Projects to Drive Structural Transformation

For long-term energy security and system stability, the strategy emphasizes large reservoir-based and multipurpose projects:

• 490 MW Arun IV Hydropower Project and
• 439 MW Betan Karnali Hydropower Project targeted by 2090

By 2091, Nepal plans to complete a cluster of major projects critical for year-round energy balance:

• 1,200 MW Budhigandaki (reservoir project)
• 670 MW Dudhkoshi Hydropower Project
• 1,061 MW Upper Arun Hydropower Project
• 417 MW Nalgad Hydropower Project

By 2092, additional major projects are expected to come online:

• 281 MW Naumure Multipurpose Project
• 828 MW Uttarganga Hydropower Project

These large-scale projects are designed to reduce seasonal imbalances in electricity supply, ensuring stable generation during both dry winter and monsoon seasons.

Solar Expansion and Diversified Energy Mix

In parallel with hydropower expansion, the strategy gives equal priority to solar energy development, targeting over 1,000 MW of solar generation by 2085.

The plan outlines:

• Around 3,500 MW generation through Nepal Electricity Authority and its subsidiaries
• Approximately 14,000 MW from independent power producers (IPPs)

This diversified approach aims to strengthen energy resilience and reduce overdependence on hydropower.

Domestic Demand Growth and Electrification Push

Nepal’s current installed capacity stands at around 4,086 MW, with per capita electricity consumption at approximately 450 units.

The strategy targets a sharp increase to 1,500 units per capita, driven by:

• Expansion of electric vehicles (EVs)
• Promotion of electric cooking systems
• Increased industrial electrification

This demand-side growth is seen as critical for absorbing rising generation capacity and strengthening the domestic energy market.

Export Strategy: India and Bangladesh in Focus

Nepal has already signed a long-term agreement with India to export 10,000 MW of electricity within 10 years, while power trade with Bangladesh is also progressing.

The strategy emphasizes:

• Exporting surplus electricity during peak demand periods
• Securing higher tariffs in regional markets
• Using energy exports to reduce Nepal’s trade deficit

Investment, Accountability, and Market Positioning

Officials at the Energy Ministry believe that introducing clear timelines for project completion will significantly improve:

• Investor confidence
• Project execution accountability
• Financing mobilization
• Nepal’s credibility in regional energy markets

The strategy marks a shift from policy ambiguity to execution-driven planning, aiming to establish Nepal as a reliable regional energy exporter and investment destination.

With defined deadlines, a diversified energy mix, and export-oriented planning, Nepal is positioning its hydropower sector as a central pillar of economic transformation in the coming decade.