Monsoon advances early across South Asia, But Nepal may still wait weeks for arrival

KATHMANDU — South Asia’s annual monsoon season has begun nearly a week earlier than usual this year, but weather experts say Nepal may still need to wait several weeks before the rain-bearing system enters the country, despite favorable atmospheric conditions building across the region.

According to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon advanced on May 16, covering parts of the south Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and sections of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, signaling an earlier-than-normal onset for the 2026 monsoon season.

Meteorologists say conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the monsoon to expand further into the remaining parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Andaman region within the next three to four days.

When Will the Monsoon Reach Nepal?

India’s weather agency has projected that the monsoon is likely to arrive in the southern Indian state of Kerala by May 26, marking the formal beginning of India’s rainy season. Since the monsoon traditionally enters Nepal through eastern regions after progressing northward across India, Nepal is expected to see monsoon arrival sometime after that.

Meteorologists say Nepal usually experiences monsoon onset within seven to ten days after it reaches India, though weather patterns can vary significantly from year to year.

Senior meteorologist Varun Poudel said declaring monsoon onset in Nepal involves analyzing multiple atmospheric indicators rather than relying on rainfall alone.

“In simple terms, the current westerly winds affecting Nepal need to be displaced by easterly moisture-bearing winds,” Poudel explained. “At the same time, upper atmospheric conditions, including the northward shift of the Tibetan High pressure system, are carefully monitored before officially declaring the monsoon’s arrival.”

Under normal climatic conditions, Nepal’s monsoon season begins around June 13 and withdraws around October 2, accounting for nearly 80 percent of the country’s annual rainfall.

Below-Average Rainfall, Hotter Temperatures Expected in Nepal

Weather experts have projected that Nepal could experience below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures during this year’s monsoon season, although localized episodes of heavy rainfall remain likely.

The monsoon period, extending from June to September, is crucial for Nepal’s agriculture, hydropower production, water supply and economy. However, it is also associated with recurring disasters including floods, landslides, inundation and soil erosion, often causing significant loss of life and property.

Meteorologists warn that while overall rainfall may remain lower than average, isolated areas could still witness extreme precipitation events, increasing disaster risks in vulnerable mountain and hill regions.

India Issues Heavy Rain and Heatwave Alerts

The India Meteorological Department has issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall across several southern and northeastern Indian states in the coming days as the monsoon advances.

States including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, West Bengal and Sikkim are expected to receive intense rainfall, while thunderstorms and strong winds are forecast in multiple regions.

Meanwhile, large parts of northwestern and central India are expected to face severe heatwave conditions, with states such as Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi likely to experience extreme temperatures through late May.

In India’s capital, Delhi, temperatures are forecast to remain high through May 22, with possible thunderstorms and wind gusts of up to 40 km/h in some areas.

Heatwave warnings have also been issued for Uttar Pradesh, which borders Nepal, raising concerns over rising temperatures in adjoining areas of the Nepal-India plains.