Australia and US visa crackdown drives surge in enrollment at Nepali colleges

Indrasara Khadka/KATHMANDU: A visible shift is emerging in Nepal’s higher education landscape as tightening student visa policies in major study destinations such as Australia and United States begin to reshape student behaviour, reversing a long-standing trend of mass outbound migration for higher education.

After years in which completing Grade 12 (Plus Two) in Nepal almost automatically triggered preparations for overseas study, domestic colleges are now reporting a steady rise in enrolment. Institutions that once struggled to fill seats are now witnessing stronger admission demand, while education consultancies report a shift in student counselling patterns from “exit-only planning” to parallel domestic–foreign options.

Education sector stakeholders attribute this change primarily to stricter visa scrutiny, rising study costs, and increased uncertainty in approval outcomes in traditional destinations including Canada and the United Kingdom, alongside Australia and the United States.

Visa tightening reshapes long-standing migration mindset

For more than a decade, Nepal’s post-secondary education ecosystem was strongly oriented toward international migration. Students and parents would begin preparing for IELTS, financial documentation, university applications, and consultancy counselling immediately after Grade 12 results.

However, this model is increasingly under pressure.

In recent years, student visa policies in countries such as Australia, the US, and Canada have become more stringent, requiring deeper scrutiny of applicants’ financial capacity, academic relevance, intent of study, and post-study plans. At the same time, living expenses and tuition fees in these countries have risen significantly.

As a result, even well-prepared applicants are facing uncertainty in final visa approvals. Education consultancies report that admission offers from foreign universities are no longer sufficient to guarantee departure, as visa rejection risk has become the defining barrier.

Maheshbabu Timsina, founder and CEO of Kangaroo Education, notes that Australia’s policy tightening has had a direct impact on Nepali applicants.

According to him, visa approval processes now involve a more comprehensive assessment framework than in previous years. “It is no longer just about receiving an offer letter from a university,” he explains. “Authorities now examine financial strength, course relevance, academic background, and long-term intent in much greater depth.”

He further notes that Nepal’s risk classification in Australia’s immigration evaluation framework has effectively shifted upward, contributing to increased scrutiny of applications.

Students caught between ambition and uncertainty

For many Nepali students, the aspiration to study abroad remains intact—but the pathway has become significantly less predictable.

Smona Rai, a Grade 12 graduate from a college in Chabahil, represents a growing cohort of students navigating this uncertainty. While she continues to prepare for overseas study, she now simultaneously considers domestic higher education as a fallback option.

“I still want to go abroad if possible,” she says. “But if the visa does not get approved, I will have to study in Nepal.”

Her perspective is echoed by classmates like Anisha Thakuri, who also prioritises foreign universities but acknowledges the need for contingency planning due to unpredictable visa outcomes.

Similarly, Samir Niraula from Jhapa is preparing for Australia, working through language tests, documentation, and university applications. Yet his confidence is tempered by uncertainty.

“We hear from seniors who prepared everything but still did not get visas,” he says. “Even if you get admission, nothing is guaranteed until the visa arrives.”

These students reflect a broader behavioural shift: overseas education remains the first preference, but domestic institutions are increasingly being treated as parallel or backup options rather than last resorts.

Education consultancies under pressure

Education consultancies, which have long served as intermediaries between Nepali students and global universities, are also experiencing structural pressure.

According to consultancy operators, demand for destinations like Japan and South Korea remains relatively stable due to more predictable visa processes, while traditional destinations such as Australia and Canada have become significantly more complex.

Sheshraj Bhattarai, former president of the Education Consultancy Association of Nepal (ECAN), observes that the core issue is no longer university admission but visa approval.

“Students still prefer the US and Australia,” he notes. “But the success rate of visa approval has declined, which means many cannot actually pursue their plans even after being admitted.”

He adds that earlier, fulfilling application requirements was often enough to secure study abroad opportunities. Today, however, visa rejection risk has become the decisive factor, forcing students to reconsider domestic education options.

Bhattarai also highlights a structural shift: students are now applying to Nepal-based colleges alongside foreign applications, effectively dual-tracking their education plans.

Domestic colleges see renewed demand

The tightening of international student visa policies has created unexpected relief for Nepal’s higher education institutions.

For years, colleges and universities in Nepal faced declining enrolment at the undergraduate level as large numbers of students migrated abroad. Many institutions struggled to meet even their approved intake capacity, while some were forced to reconsider program viability due to low admissions.

However, recent trends suggest a gradual recovery.

Academic institutions reported improved enrolment last year, with expectations of further growth this academic cycle. Colleges that once conducted outreach campaigns to attract students are now experiencing increased organic demand.

Shyam Sundar Shrestha, principal of Texas International College in Chabahil, describes the current shift as a positive development for Nepal’s education system.

“Our college did not face major student shortages,” he says. “But the broader market shift is encouraging. As studying abroad becomes more uncertain, students are beginning to view Nepali institutions more seriously.”

He argues that the focus should now move beyond enrolment numbers toward quality enhancement. “The challenge is not just attracting students,” he adds. “It is about ensuring global-level education standards within Nepal.”

Rising domestic higher education enrolment

Official data supports the growing trend of domestic education uptake.

Nepal’s Economic Survey 2025/26 shows that total higher education enrolment increased by 10.9 percent year-on-year. The number of students rose from 672,489 in fiscal year 2020/21 to 745,770 in 2021/22.

Management studies remain the dominant stream, accounting for 50.5 percent of total enrolment, while agriculture remains the lowest at just 0.15 percent. Combined, management, education, and humanities/social sciences account for nearly 80 percent of total students.

Tribhuvan University continues to dominate the system, with affiliated and constituent campuses accounting for over 75 percent of total enrolment.

Foreign study approvals still rising despite challenges

Despite increasing restrictions, demand for overseas study remains strong.

Government data shows that 85,306 Nepali students obtained No Objection Certificates (NOC) for foreign study by mid-Falgun in fiscal year 2024/25. In the previous fiscal year, the total reached a record 123,589 students.

The trend shows consistent long-term growth, with only a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic years. Post-pandemic, outbound student mobility has rebounded sharply, driven by strong demand for global education opportunities.

Popular destinations remain concentrated in Australia, Japan, Canada, the US, and the UK, indicating that while barriers have increased, aspirational preferences remain largely unchanged.

Structural shift rather than decline in aspiration

Education experts emphasise that the current development should not be interpreted as a decline in desire for foreign education, but rather as a recalibration of risk.

Students are increasingly adopting dual strategies—pursuing international applications while simultaneously enrolling or applying to domestic institutions.

This has effectively changed the role of Nepali colleges. Once considered backup options, they are now becoming active competitors in higher education decision-making.

A changing education equilibrium

Nepal’s higher education sector is entering a transitional phase shaped by global immigration policy shifts, economic pressures, and changing student expectations.

While countries like Australia, the US, Canada, the UK, and Japan remain highly desirable, the pathway to reaching them has become more complex and uncertain.

At the same time, domestic institutions are experiencing renewed relevance, supported by improved enrolment trends and gradual perception shifts among students and parents.

The outcome is a more balanced but more complex education ecosystem—one where decisions are no longer linear, and where Nepal-based higher education is regaining strategic importance in student planning.